Zack's Picks

NBA Lock of the Day: February 8 2012

2012-02-09T13:51:00.002-08:00

Finally, I got a win with Phoenix last night and not only did they cover the spread, but won the game straight up. Good for them and good for me.

Anyways, tonight I am taking the Knicks in Washington. New York has played well despite the absence of the their two stars; Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire. Actually, as I've been saying all season, they look better when only one of those two is on the courts. This Jeremy Lin kid looks like the real deal and I doubt that there is enough tape on him to truly figure out how to stop him. Plus, the Wizards are a pretty dysfunctional team and they really shouldn't be favorites against anybody.

So with that, there isn't really much else to say.

New York Knicks +1 1/2 WIN

Washington Wizards

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NBA: Lock of the Day February 7 2012

2012-02-09T13:51:00.001-08:00

Here we go again.

Tonights pick of the day is... The Phoenix Suns

They are nearly 8 point underdogs to the Milwaukee Bucks tonight and while Phoenix has not been great this year, Milwaukee hasn't been any better. When they played earlier in the year, Phoenix won by 16.

On top of that, the Suns have won 3 of their last 4 while the Bucks are on a two game losing streak. I know that the Suns played last night, but I like them coming off a strong win to dominate another game tonight.

Certainly they will cover the spread.

Phoenix +7 1/2 WIN

Bucks

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NBA Lock of the Day: January 23 2011

2012-01-23T14:08:00.000-08:00

Well, the NFL season is almost over and for all intents-and-purposes the year of betting on football has come to a close. Yes, there is still the Super Bowl (more on that in the coming weeks) but it is time to focus on basketball for the next couple months.

So, without further adieu my NBA pick of the night.

Phoenix Suns +5 1/2

Orlando Magic

I like Phoenix for a couple reasons.

1. They have played pretty well of late, including wins on the road against both New York and Boston. Those two teams are a little overrated, but they are still two solid teams and the Suns not only played well against them, but actually won the games.

2. Dallas played a tight one, and won against New Orleans a few nights ago, but with Dirk they were not nearly as good as they are with him. He's not playing tonight either and the Mavericks will suffer.

3. Dallas has played 4 tight games in a row and Phoenix has played tight in their last two. Either way, win or lose, in a close game you always take the underdog. Getting points in a 3 point affair is way better than giving them.

So, I'll take the Suns.

Remember, this is only for fun. Never bet on a game unless you can afford it and live in a state or country where it is legal.

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BCS National Championship Game Prediction

2012-01-09T08:29:00.001-08:00

Tonight is the rematch of the infamous November "Game of the Century" between LSU and Alabama which LSU won by a grand score of 9-6. NO TDs, just 4 FGs in regulation and one in OT.

So the game was pretty boring from an offensive standpoint, but everything you could want from two tough teams. A defensive struggle that went into OT. I think that everyone would have enjoyed the game much more had it not been built up to be the best game of all time.

With that being said, I am of course a little disappointed that this game is a rematch. Had Houston or Boise St finished undefeated it would have been great to see those two play. Or maybe even Oregon where we could have all seen a high flying offense VS. a tough defense.

But you've probably read about this for the last couple of weeks so I won't delve into it.

Here is the pick. LSU!!!

LSU won the first game and there is no reason to believe they won't win the second. Since they defeated Alabama, they've gone on to crush Arkansas and Georgia to finish their undefeated season and win the SEC. Plus, they beat Oregon earlier in the year and have won a total of 8 games against ranked opponents.

No disrespect to Alabama, but I just don't think they will win tonight. They've only defeated four ranked opponents all year and I know they also beat Arkansas earlier in the year but that is really their only highlight win.

This game should be nothing like the first; I don't like doing the over/under but I'd bet that they'll go over the 40 1/2 points as well.

Final Score

LSU 27

Alabama 14

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2011 NFL Week 2

2011-09-16T08:55:00.000-07:00

Let's do a short recap of Week 1. I finished 8-8 which isn't bad but not particularly good either. Then again, I ran out of time and just quickly made some quick picks because I had to write an essay and didn't have time to analyze all the games.

This week, I will do much better. Actually on my ESPN Pick'em account (with the spread) I went 10-6 so I guess I must have mixed up my picks here and there. In general though I went 12-4 straight up which is pretty solid.

Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints

Spread: New Orleans -7

Last week, Jay Cutler showed why he should still be considered a top QB in this league and so did Drew Brees. They each had over 300 yd passing and over a 105 QB rating. That sounds good to me.

But I think the edge has to go to the Bears' Defense. Brian Urlacher was the best player on the field last sunday against Atlanta; better than Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Jay Cutler, and even Devin Hester. Brees is going to have to stare him down on every play this coming sunday and I doubt he will be able to put up the passing yards that we saw him throw for against the Packers.

The Saints have a decent defense of their own and should prevent Cutler from launching the ball over the field like he did against the Falcons. The Saints are also a little bit smarter on offense and won't give up as many turnovers as the Falcons did.

I like the Bears to cover this rather large spread; especially considering the fact the Bears were in the NFC Championship last season and they have more or less the same team this year. 7 points is far too many. I don't think they'll win, but it'll be a close game.

UPDATE: Sadly, Brian Urlacher has had to deal with familial issues and may not be able to play on sunday. Hopefully, all is well with his family. In terms of the game, I still feel confident the Bears will cover

Decision Time: Saints 24- Bears 20

Spread: Chicago Bears +7

Pick'em: New Orleans Saints

Kansas City Chiefs @ Detroit Lions

Spread: Detroit -9

When was the last time the Lions were favorites by this much?? I don't know, but I have to assume it has been a very very long time.

The Lions played pretty well last week and Mathew Stafford showed that he belongs in the NFL. The Lions have looked lost for the last decade, but it is amazing how quickly a team can turn it around. With Stafford under center and Ndamokung Suh facing off against the opposing center, the Lions look poised to become a serious team this year and a serious contender next year.

In terms of this game though, the Lions should be able to throw all over this weakened Chiefs defense. If the Bills can do what they did last week, expect the Lions to put up at least 24 points in this game as well.

From the Kansas City perspective, it doesn't look good for them this game and probably this season. I think last year most teams didn't realize what the Chiefs had but they are not going to catch anybody by surprise this season. The Bills showed that last week as they obliterated them on both offense and defense. Matt Cassel will play better than he did last week, but not good enough to overcome their defensive shortcoming.

Decision Time: Chiefs 17 - Lions 24

Spread: Kansas City Chiefs +9

Pick'em: Detroit Lions

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets

Spread: Jets -9

The Jets have a very very good defense. The Jaguars do not have such a good offense. This seems to spell trouble for the Jaguars on the offensive side of the ball. But, they do have a great weapon in Maurice Jones Drew so the should score at least a couple TDs.

Mark Sanchez has really come into his own and is developing into a very decent QB. Not a great one, but somebody who can and will win ball games. I don't know if they can score points yet though. Last week it took a wild 4th quarter to win the game, otherwise the Jets probably wouldn't have scored more than 14 points.

I'm not too confident that the Jets will cover but I'm going to take them to win by 10 and just squeak by.

Decision Time: Jets 24 - Jaguars 14

Spread: New York Jets -10

Pick'em: New York Jets

Oakland Raiders @ Buffalo Bills

Spread: Bills -3 1/2

These are probably the two most underrated teams in the NFL.

The Bills played excellent games towards the end of the season last year and obliterated the Chiefs in their own building last week. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a good smart QB who generally makes the right decisions. With a rebuilt defense and wild-card Brad Smith, they will upset quite a few good teams this year.

The Raiders are finally the tough team that Al Davis has been trying to build since his team lost in the Super Bowl a decade ago. Darren McFadden is not the same electric player he was in College but he has finally figured out how to barrel over defensive players. Jason Campbell didn't look amazing last week, but he avoided any costly turnovers.

Decision Time: Bills 20 - Raiders 17

Spread: Oakland Raiders + 3 1/2

Pick'em: Buffalo Bills

Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Redskins

Spread: Washington -4 1/2

I know the Redskins played pretty well last week, but I am still concerned about them. They were pretty terrible last year and if it wasn't for a fluke pick-6 to begin the second half they very easily could have lost that game. In addition, I still blame very very poor defensive play on the part of the Giants rather then giving all the credit to the Redksin's offense. I forgot which defensive back did this but the Redskins were stopped on that final TD drive when one Giant DB had an unnecessary roughness call. If he doesn't do that, the Giants have another shot to win the game and maybe we aren't giving so much credit to the Redskins.

Either way though, let's talk about the upcoming Washington-Arizona game.

Rex Grossman played pretty well last week, but you never know with him. The Cardinals do not have such a great defense though, so he should be relatively safe from the blitz. If he has time in the pocked he will make the Cardinals pay. But, if they can put pressure on him then he will make some very costly errors. Tim Hightower should alleviate some of that pressure and could be the bigger factor than Grossman in this game. If you're looking for a Fantasy edge, definitely get Hightower into your lineup this week. He'll probably get at least one score and go over 100 yards.

On the Cardinals side of the ball; they have one of the more potent passing games in the NFL this year. Kevin Kolb finally has his chance to play consistenly, and Larry Fitzgerald once again has a good QB. The two of them will continue to make each other look good each week. Their offense was the reason they won last week and I think it'll be the reason again. Beanie Wells is good at running back but he'll need to play better than Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw did for the Giants last week against the Redskins for the Cardinals to win this game.

Decision Time: Cardinals 24 - Redskins 20

Spread: Arizona Cardinals +4 1/2

Pick'em: Arizona Cardinals

Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans

Spread: Baltimore -6

Anybody else watch the Raven's game last week? I think if I remember correctly they crushed the Steelers who if I also remember correctly were in the Super Bowl last year. I konw the Steelers are probably not going to be nearly as good this year as they have been, but I believe it was more the Ravens defense then it was the Steelers' offensive ineptitude.

Now that we've established that, let's talk about this upcoming game. Clearly the Ravens are the more physical team. They have a better running game and defense and although Matt Hasselbeck was once an elite QB he is not anymore. Joe Flacco will be the best QB on the field come sunday.

So why is this spread only 6 points? I have absolutely no idea. I guess it's possible that the Titans establish Chris Johnson early and then Hasselbeck can air it out wit his arm but I just don't see that happening. Chris Johnson didn't do much last year and I think that he, like many running backs before him, had that one great year and will never be able to repeat it.

I guess the Titans will be in this game for a while, but you gotta figure the Ravens win this one easily.

Decision Time: Ravens 27 - Titans 13

Spread: Baltimore Ravens -6

Pick'em: Baltimore Ravens

Seattle Seahwaks @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Pittsburgh -15

Umm, this is a very very big spread for an early season game. But, the Seahawks did not look good last year, and many people had the Steelers repeating in the Super Bowl this year. But, I think Seattle will give Pittsburgh some problems.

First of all, Seattle is a young team with lots of speed while the Steelers are aging group of veterans who have looked awfully slow last week.

I'm not going to spend much time talking about this because I think the Steelers will win this game. I'm not sure about the spread but if i had to I would take the Seahawks.

Decision Time: Steelers 27 - Seahawks 14

Spread: Seattle Seahawks +15

Pick'em: Pittsburgh Steelers

Green Bay Packers @ Carolina Panthers

Spread: Green Bay -10 1/2

I feel like I'm repeating myself here with the Steeler-Seahawk game.

The Packers are going to win this game, it's just a question of by how much.

Well last week Cam Newton and the Panthers played a pretty weak defensive team in Arizona, scored by 21 and lost by 7 points. Green Bay's offense and defense are each far and away better than Arizonas so you'd expect Green Bay to win by at least 7.

And that is what's going to happen.

Decision Time: Packers 31 - Panthers 13

Spread: Green Bay Packers -10 1/2

Pick'em: Green Bay Packers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Minnesota -3

I find it a little odd that Minnesota is favored in this game, considering the fact that Donovan McNabb threw for all of 39 yards last week. They did hang tight against a good San Diego team, but if it weren't for an early Percy Harvin KR TD it would have been a blowout.

Tampa Bay did lose to Detroit, but they played a pretty decent game. Josh Freeman should bounce back against Minnesota's weaker defense and throw for a couple TDs. LeGarrette Blount was complaining after last week that he should get the ball a little more. He only had 5 carries last week. He is absolutely right. If Tampa Bay can establish the running game early, they should cruise into a victory.

Decision Time: Buccaneers 17 - Vikings 10

Spread: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3

Pick'em: Tampa Bay

Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts

Spread: Cleveland -2

If this game were played last year or any other of the last 10 years, Indianapolis would probably be a 10 point favorite. So much has changed though. The Colts looked awful last week against Houston and I don't know if they can survive with Peyton Manning on the field. Their defense looked weak, their offense looked bleak and they barely even mounted a squeak last week.

The Browns were upset last week and looked a little out of place against Cincinnati. Everybody kind of assumed the Bengals were going to be terrible and I don't think the Browns really knew what to expect.

This week should be different. Both teams now know what they have and both teams know that they have to win. I do see the Colts pulling the upset though because of two reasons.

1. If they don't win this game their season is over and they know that. Kerry Collins should be a little more comfortable than last week and will play better.

2. This game is in Indianapolis. I know it may sound a little silly, but the home field advantage is going to make all the difference.

Decision Time: Colts 24 - Browns 20

Spread: Indianapolis Colts +2

Pick'em: Indianapolis Colts

Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers

Spread: Dallas -3

Everybody seems to love Dallas in this game which generally means that the game is going to go in favor of San Francisco.

I am not going to let myself think this way and all the signs point to Dallas winning this game. First of all they are a far better team with a much better offense and defense. We can point to their defeat of Seattle last week, but that was only a two point game until two late scores by Ted Ginn put this game out of hand.

So if they could only beat Seattle by two points, should we expect them to be able to defeat Dallas.

No.

Decision Time: Cowboys 34 - San Francisco 17

Spread: Dallas Cowboys -3

Pick'em: Dallas Cowboys

Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins

Spread: Texans -3

Decision Time:

San Diego Chargers @ New England Patriots

Spread: Patriots -7

Decision Time:

Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos

Spread: Broncos -3 1/2

Decision Time:

Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Philadelphia -3

Decision Time:

St. Louis Rams @ New York Giants

Spread:

Decision Time

2011 NFL Week 1

2011-09-09T08:55:00.000-07:00

Ok, here we go again.

The NFL Season is about to begin and I am all ready to make my picks for every game of every week with and without the spread.

Just remember though, these picks are purely for fun, or for help with your free ESPN or Yahoo pick'em accounts.

The one thing I learnt from last year was that 4 points is a huge amount for any NFL game to be decided by. I'll give you an example. The New England Patriots are crushing the Buffalo Bills 20-10 late in the 4th quarter and with 1:30 to go, punt it away. The Bills have absolutely no chance at winning and the Patriots play a weak defense and let them score with 15 seconds to go. The Patriots take home a decisive 20-17 victory that was never really close, but lose on the 4 point spread.

With that in mind, I'm going to use this main page as merely a list of my picks for the week and I'll post links to each blog post with more information about the game and why I think they will win.

New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers

Spread: Packers -4

To put it simply, these are two of the top 5 offenses in the NFL and this game should be a back and forth touchdown bonanza. A great way to start off the season with fireworks and touchdowns galore.

For more information check out Tuesday's Post.

Winning Team: Packers

With the Spread: Saints +4

Alright I ran out of time so I am just going to fly through the rest of these picks without any advice whatsoever.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens

Spread: Ravens -1

Winner: Ravens -1

Detroit Lions @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

Spread: Bucs -1

Winner: Bucs -1

Atlanta Falcons @ Chicago Bears

Spread: Falcons -3

Winner: Bears +3

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs: -5.5

Winner: Bills +5 1/2

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

Spread: Texans -9

Winner: Colts +9

Philadelphia Eagles @ St. Louis Rams

Spread: Eagles -4 1/2

Winner: Eagles -4 1/2

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns

Spread: Browns -7

Winner: Bengals +7

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Jaguars -1

Winner: Titans +1

New York Giants @ Washington Redskins

Spread: Giants -3

Winner: Giants -3

Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals

Spread: Cardinals -7

Winner: Cardinals -7

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

Spread: 49ers -5 1/2

Winner: Seahawks +5 1/2

Minnesota Vikings @ San Diego Chargers

Spread: Chargers -9

Winner: Vikings +9

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Jets

Spread: Jets -5 1/2

Winner: Cowboys +5 1/2

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins

Spread: Patriots -7

Winner: Patriots -7

Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos

Spread: Broncos -3

Winner: Broncos -3